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- Super Nova v Tukums
- Stevenage v Luton
Reasonings & Stats
Starting with the match in Latvia, once again, many of you may not know too much about this league, so make sure you’re fully onboard with the reasoning and stats before backing it.
The recent head-to-head record certainly gives us something to work with, with BTTS landing in all five of the last five meetings between these sides. Looking at their recent form, both teams won their most recent match and both have picked up two wins from their last five games.
Moving onto the goals stats, the hosts have seen BTTS in 59% of their matches this season, while Tukums have seen it land in an impressive 83% of their games.
The xG numbers also catch the eye, with both sides carrying an xG against of around 1.7, suggesting there could be opportunities for both teams at the back.
The AI over at FootballBetEdge also likes this one for BTTS, giving the market a probability of over 60%. With the head-to-head record, goals data and AI probability all pointing in the same direction, this looks like an interesting one for our double.
Onto the English League One match, and this could be an interesting game that isn’t particularly easy to predict.
Stevenage aren’t always involved in high-scoring games, but they have scored nine goals and conceded six from their opening five matches this season. Luton, meanwhile, have scored and conceded 11 goals, so their games have certainly produced plenty of action at both ends.
Both teams have seen BTTS land in 80% of their matches so far this season, which is a pretty difficult stat to ignore.
The xG numbers are, unsurprisingly, stronger for Luton, with both their xG for and xG against sitting higher. However, Stevenage have home advantage and I really fancy them to find the net here. Luton have enough quality going forward that I would expect them to score in most games too.
The last head-to-head finished Luton 2-1 Stevenage, while the last meeting at this ground ended 2-0 to Stevenage. So, if the head-to-head record is anything to go by, this really could go either way.
For me, though, the combination of both teams’ BTTS records, the goals they’ve been involved in this season and the attacking quality on both sides makes BTTS an interesting option.
That’s it for Thursday’s selection. Hopefully we’ve found a winner with this BTTS double. There are some decent stats behind both picks, but as always, bet responsibly and never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Want to dig deeper into the stats behind these picks? Head over to FootballBetEdge.com, where you can explore advanced football statistics, customise the stats you see, check our unique traffic light system and see AI-powered probabilities across a range of betting markets.
If you’re serious about using data to help with your football betting, it’s well worth taking a look.
