UEFA Nations League Betting Guide Thursday 24 September 2026 🌍⚽

The 2026/27 UEFA Nations League gets underway this week, with Thursday bringing four particularly interesting fixtures.

The timing makes this edition especially intriguing. These are the first competitive international matches since the 2026 World Cup, meaning some nations arrive with the confidence of a strong tournament behind them, while others are beginning a new cycle with new managers and new ideas.

Here are four games worth watching on Thursday, with the key players, World Cup storylines, tactical angles and a betting prediction for each.

🇳🇱 Netherlands vs Germany 🇩🇪

Thursday 24 September – 7:45pm

Two new eras begin in Amsterdam

This is arguably the headline fixture of the opening Nations League round.

Both countries reached the 2026 World Cup, but neither got the tournament they wanted. The Netherlands topped their group after beating Sweden 5-1 and Tunisia 3-1, but were eliminated by Morocco on penalties after a 1-1 draw in the round of 32.

Germany also went out at the first knockout hurdle, losing to Paraguay.

The big story now is that both teams have changed managers.

Xavi Hernández takes charge of the Netherlands for the first time, replacing Ronald Koeman, while Jürgen Klopp makes his Germany debut after taking over from Julian Nagelsmann. UEFA has confirmed that Thursday will be the first match in charge for both managers.

That makes this much more than another Netherlands-Germany fixture.

Netherlands

Xavi’s appointment should bring an emphasis on possession, technical quality and building attacks through the midfield.

The Netherlands have plenty of players suited to that approach, particularly Frenkie de Jong, Tijjani Reijnders and Ryan Gravenberch.

Further forward, Cody Gakpo provides the ability to attack from the left and cut inside, while Brian Brobbey is another interesting player after his strong recent form. UEFA specifically highlights Brobbey as one of the players to watch.

The Netherlands’ World Cup campaign showed that they can score goals — they scored 10 in their three group matches — but the Morocco defeat demonstrated that they can also be dragged into a tight knockout-style game.

Germany

Klopp’s first competitive game in international management is a fascinating storyline in itself.

His Germany squad contains plenty of technical quality, with Jamal Musiala the obvious creative threat and Joshua Kimmich providing control and experience in midfield.

There is also a new generation pushing through. UEFA has highlighted Eintracht Frankfurt forward Younes Ebnoutaliband teenage Bayern creator Lennart Karl as players to watch.

The interesting question is how quickly Klopp can impose his ideas. Germany already have the players to play aggressively and press high, but this is his first competitive match and the Netherlands are also under a new coach.

The standout market: Both Teams To Score

This is the game where I’d rather avoid trying to pick a winner.

Both managers are beginning new projects, both squads possess considerable attacking talent and both teams have plenty of technical players capable of creating chances.

The previous Nations League meeting in Amsterdam finished 2-2, before Germany won the return fixture 1-0 in Munich.

With Xavi and Klopp both beginning their international reigns, BTTS looks like the more interesting angle than simply backing either side.

Prediction: Netherlands 2-2 Germany

🇳🇴 Norway vs Denmark 🇩🇰

Thursday 24 September – 7:45pm

Norway arrive as a genuine post-World Cup force

Norway come into this Nations League campaign with something Denmark don’t have: the experience of a deep World Cup run this summer.

Norway reached the quarter-finals of the 2026 World Cup, beating Côte d’Ivoire and Brazil before losing 2-1 to England after extra time.

They also qualified for the tournament with a perfect record of eight wins from eight, scoring 37 goals and conceding only five.

And naturally, the headline remains Erling Haaland.

He scored seven times at the World Cup after scoring 16 during qualifying, while captain Martin Ødegaard provides the creativity behind him.

Players to watch

Erling Haaland is the obvious one.

But Norway aren’t simply a Haaland team anymore. Martin Ødegaard gives them a world-class creative presence, while players such as Antonio Nusa and Andreas Schjelderup provide pace and unpredictability around the striker.

That combination is important because Denmark will know exactly what Norway want to do.

Norway can stretch teams with their wide players, use Ødegaard between the lines and then attack the penalty area with Haaland.

Denmark

Denmark missed the World Cup after losing to Czechia on penalties following a 2-2 draw after extra time in the play-off final.

That means they enter this campaign looking to reset.

There is still plenty of quality. Rasmus Højlund remains the main threat up front, while Mikkel Damsgaard can create problems between the lines and from set pieces.

Interestingly, Denmark showed plenty of attacking quality in the World Cup play-offs, beating North Macedonia 4-0before drawing 2-2 with Czechia.

The standout market: Norway to win

Norway’s World Cup run demonstrated how far this team has developed.

They have a proven goalscorer in Haaland, elite creativity through Ødegaard and a number of exciting younger attackers.

Playing at home against a Denmark side that missed the World Cup, Norway have the ingredients to make their attacking quality count.

Prediction: Norway 2-1 Denmark

Player to watch: Erling Haaland

🇵🇹 Portugal vs Wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

Thursday 24 September – 7:45pm

New Portugal era begins

Portugal enter the Nations League as the defending champions, having become the first country to win the competition twice in 2025.

But there is a new manager in Lisbon.

Jorge Jesus takes charge of Portugal for the first time after Roberto Martínez left following the World Cup. Jesus brings huge club experience, including league titles with Benfica and Flamengo, as well as a Copa Libertadores triumph with Flamengo.

Portugal’s World Cup ended in the last 16, where they lost 1-0 to Spain.

Jesus has nevertheless retained Cristiano Ronaldo, who at 41 remains part of the squad and is chasing the remarkable milestone of 1,000 career goals.

Players to watch

Obviously, Cristiano Ronaldo remains one of the biggest stories.

But Portugal have enormous quality beyond their captain.

Bruno Fernandes provides creativity and goals from midfield, while Vitinha can dictate the tempo. At left-back, Nuno Mendes is particularly interesting. UEFA named him as one of the players to watch and he was the 2024/25 Nations League Player of the Finals.

That combination gives Portugal several ways of attacking.

They can play through midfield, create overloads on the left through Mendes, or look for Ronaldo in the penalty area.

Wales

Wales return to League A after winning promotion from League B.

However, they missed out on the World Cup after losing to Bosnia and Herzegovina on penalties following a 1-1 draw in their play-off semi-final.

Craig Bellamy remains in charge and has brought some new faces into the squad, including Cardiff forward Cian Ashford, who receives his first senior call-up.

Daniel James remains an important outlet because of his pace, while Jordan James provides energy and physicality through midfield.

Wales also have some significant absences for this match, with Harry Wilson and Nathan Broadhead unavailable and defensive concerns around Joe Rodon and Dylan Lawlor.

The standout market: Portugal to win

This is a difficult opening assignment for Wales.

Portugal have home advantage, are the reigning Nations League champions and possess considerably more attacking depth.

The interesting tactical question is whether Wales can prevent Portugal’s midfield from controlling the game. If Portugal can get Fernandes and Vitinha involved regularly and Mendes can push forward, Wales could spend long periods defending.

Prediction: Portugal 2-0 Wales

Player to watch: Nuno Mendes

🇽🇰 Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland 🇮🇪

Thursday 24 September – 7:45pm

A fascinating League B battle

This one is very different from the three League A matches.

Neither Kosovo nor Ireland reached the 2026 World Cup, although both came extremely close.

Kosovo reached the European play-off final after beating Slovakia but lost 1-0 to Türkiye in Pristina.

Ireland also reached the play-offs but lost to Czechia on penalties after a 2-2 draw.

So both teams will be looking to start a new Nations League campaign positively.

Kosovo

Kosovo are becoming increasingly difficult to beat at home.

They have lost only once in their last seven competitive home internationals, conceding just three goals during that run.

The main danger is Vedat Muriqi.

The Mallorca striker is Kosovo’s all-time leading scorer and has 13 Nations League goals, putting him second only to Erling Haaland in the competition’s history.

Edon Zhegrova is another player worth watching. His ability to carry the ball and attack defenders gives Kosovo a different dimension when they move forward.

Republic of Ireland

Ireland have had plenty of difficult moments in front of goal historically in the Nations League.

In fact, the FAI notes that Ireland have scored only 17 goals across their Nations League history and have produced 14 goalless performances.

But there is one major reason for optimism.

Troy Parrott is coming into this international window in excellent form. He has scored six goals in his last six internationals, including the decisive goals against Hungary and Portugal during Ireland’s World Cup qualifying campaign.

Ireland’s defence is also missing captain Nathan Collins, which could make containing Muriqi more difficult.

The standout market: Under 2.5 Goals

This is a much more difficult game to predict than the Portugal or Norway matches.

Kosovo are strong at home and defensively have generally kept matches tight there, while Ireland have historically struggled to produce high-scoring Nations League matches.

That combination makes Under 2.5 Goals the interesting angle.

It could easily become a physical, tactical match where the first goal has enormous importance.

Prediction: Kosovo 1-1 Republic of Ireland

Players to watch: Vedat Muriqi & Troy Parrott

Thursday’s Nations League Predictions ✅

Accumulator idea

BTTS — Netherlands v Germany
Norway to win
Portugal to win
Under 2.5 Goals — Kosovo v Republic of Ireland

The four games have very different characteristics, which is why I wouldn’t simply use the same goals market across all of them.

Netherlands-Germany has two new managers and huge attacking quality. Norway have the momentum of a World Cup quarter-final run. Portugal have the strongest squad on paper and begin a new era under Jorge Jesus. Kosovo-Ireland looks much more suited to a tighter game.

As always, these are pre-match statistical and tactical predictions rather than guarantees, and prices should be checked before deciding whether a particular market is actually worth taking.

For more football statistics, trends and algorithm-based probabilities, FootballBetEdge’s Statly brings the numbers together so you can assess the markets yourself.

Clarity. Insight. Your edge.