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National league double
- Southend v Tamworth – Home Win
- Forest Green v Carlisle – Over 2.5 goals
Southend have started the season very well and find themselves 5th after 7 games, while Tamworth sit 22nd. Southend have been strong at home, winning 67% of their home games, while Tamworth have struggled on the road, losing 75% of their away games.
Southend are also unbeaten in their last 3 games and will fancy their chances against a Tamworth side who are winless in their last 3.
This next match has the potential to produce plenty of goals as Forest Green travel to Carlisle. What makes this one interesting is that Forest Green are top of the league, but Carlisle have the better xG for, sitting at 2.21. Forest Green still have a pretty high xG for of 1.77.
Both teams are averaging over 3 total match goals, while Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 71% of their games this season. There are plenty of numbers here suggesting we could see another game with at least 3 goals.
Over 2.5 goals treble
- Meppen v Viktoria Koln
- Super Nova v Riga
- Grasshopper v Sion
Starting with the game in Germany, the first stat that stands out to us is that both teams have seen Over 2.5 Goals land in 80% of their games already this season.
The home side are averaging 3.6 total match goals, while the visitors are averaging 4.2. The host’s xG stats are also pretty high, which is usually a good sign for goals. The away side’s xG isn’t quite as high, but it still suggests there could be goals here.
When taking into account both sides’ xG and the other stats, backing Over 2.5 Goals looks like a reasonable option.
This game in Latvia offers some value, although the stats may not immediately suggest a huge number of goals. The numbers below aren’t too bad, though, and certainly suggest we could see a couple of goals.
Some of the data you can’t see below is also interesting. Super Nova have won their last 2 games and currently sit 6th. Riga are 2nd and haven’t won in their last 4 games, but a win tonight could take them to within 3 points of top spot.
Finally, over in Switzerland, the most obvious stat is that both sides have scored in every game this season.
The xG numbers are also very high, while the hosts are averaging 3.4 total match goals per game and the visitors are averaging 4.
Grasshopper’s last match saw them beat Thun 0-1, which was a good result for them, but Sion will be a tougher test. They sit 3rd and come into this game having won their last 3.
With Grasshopper at home, they have the home advantage, which could make this an interesting game. The stats certainly suggest we could see goals from both sides.
That’s our selections for today. As always, these picks are based on the stats available to us, rather than simply picking teams because they are favourites.
Want to dig into the numbers yourself? Head over to FootballBetEdge.com and explore the stats, customise your own views and see the AI-powered probabilities for yourself.
Good luck if you’re following along, and please bet responsibly!
